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05/12/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After an unscheduled day off, the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers will pull double duty with a day-night twinbill beginning this afternoon at Comerica Park.
The second test of this four-game series, slated for Tuesday, was postponed due to rain and will be made up as the opener of today's doubleheader, with a pair of struggling pitchers set to go head-to-head in the Yankees' Javier Vazquez and Detroit youngster Rick Porcello.
New York has been beaten in four of Vazquez's five starts to begin 2010, however, with the offseason acquisition having compiled a disappointing 1-3 record and a woeful 9.78 earned run average thus far. He posted a 15-8 mark with a 2.87 ERA in 32 starts for the Atlanta Braves in 2009, finishing fourth in voting for last year's National League Cy Young Award.
Vazquez has been given some additional time to work out his problems, as he hasn't pitched since being roughed up for five runs on seven hits while walking four batters in a three-inning stint against the Chicago White Sox on May 1. The right-hander was spared another loss, however, when his team rallied later in the game to erase an early deficit.
The 33-year-old also allowed three homers to the White Sox and has served up eight long balls in just 23 innings of work this season.
A trip to the Comerica Park mound may not bode well for Vazquez's chances of turning things around, as he's 2-5 with a 6.09 ERA over seven career starts in the Motor City. Overall against the Tigers, the veteran hurler is 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 appearances.
Porcello also enters this assignment in a rut, having surrendered five runs or more while going 1-3 over his last four starts. The 21-year-old's woes continued in a loss at Minnesota this past Wednesday, in which he was tagged for five runs (3 earned) and walked four batters over a 5 1/3-inning stretch that actually lowered his season ERA to 7.50.
The former first-round draft pick is 2-0 in three Comerica Park starts this season, but has pitched to a 5.51 ERA over those outings while allowing 23 hits in 16 1/3 innings. In his most recent home appearance, Porcello permitted five runs on eight hits through 5 1/3 frames in a win over the Angels on April 30.
Porcello was also hit hard when facing the Yankees at Comerica on April 29 of last season, with New York battering the right-hander for six runs on six hits over 3 2/3 innings in an 8-6 verdict.
While both Vazquez and Porcello have had their troubles, the Yankees' Phil Hughes has been on quite a roll since the beginning of this season. The talented right-hander has ripped off four consecutive winning decisions to start the year and currently ranks second among AL pitchers with a 1.69 ERA, having allowed two runs or fewer in each of his first five appearances.
Hughes followed up seven shutout innings in a May 2 victory over the White Sox by firing seven frames of two-run ball to help New York defeat the rival Boston Red Sox Friday at Fenway Park. He struck out seven while walking just one and did not give up a homer for the fourth straight start.
The 23-year-old is 2-2 with a 5.30 ERA in five lifetime meetings with Detroit, three of which have come in a starting role. Both of those wins took place last season, with Hughes combining for nine scoreless innings in his three games pitched in the series.
The Yankees will be attempting to avoid their first three-game losing streak of the season this afternoon. After being dealt a 9-3 defeat by the Red Sox on Sunday, New York was on the wrong end of a 5-4 decision in Monday's opener.
Brennan Boesch led the way for Detroit with two hits and three RBI, while Miguel Cabrera went 2-for-3 with two runs scored to help the Tigers snap a string of five straight losses to the Yankees and win for only the second time in their last six overall tilts.
"We've had a little road trip here that we didn't win as many games as we like, and now we come back home and get that first win against a ball club like the Yankees," said Boesch. "It's a big win. It was a team win, it was a battle all night."
Eddie Bonine (3-0) made a big contribution as well, tossing 2 1/3 scoreless innings in relief of emergency starter Brad Thomas to pick up the victory. Thomas worked the first three innings and allowed two runs filling in for Dontrelle Willis, who was scratched prior to the game due to an illness.
Johnny Damon, facing his former team for the first time since departing the Yankees for Detroit as a free agent during the offseason, chipped in a solo homer in the win.
New York's Sergio Mitre (0-1) was making a substitute start as well, with Andy Pettitte forced to miss a turn in the Yankees' rotation due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. He was reached for four runs (3 earned) in 4 1/3 frames to take the loss.
Mark Teixeira had a two-run homer for New York, the first baseman's fourth in the last three games, with ex-Tiger Marcus Thames adding an RBI single on the evening.
Teixeira is 0-for-12 lifetime against Jeremy Bonderman, who gets the call for the Tigers in tonight's second game. The oft-injured righty was last in action Friday at Cleveland, where he was torched for six runs on seven hits before exiting after only 2 2/3 innings. Those poor numbers were erased, however, when heavy rains forced the contest to be stopped before it became official.
Bonderman had registered a no-decision in each of his three prior starts and is 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA in five games this season. He's performed well in his two Comerica Park appearances, however, allowing a scant three runs (two earned) over an 11-inning span while netting a win and a no-decision.
The 27-year-old is just 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA over 12 encounters (11 starts) with New York, but hasn't faced the Bronx Bombers since 2008.
Prior to Monday's loss, the Yankees had won four of their past five games with the Tigers held in Detroit.
<< Indians try to add to Royals' recent misery
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians try to hang a seventh straight loss
on the Kansas City Royals this evening, when the American League Central
cellar-dwellers play the middle test of their three-game set at Kauffman
Stadium.
Clevelan
<< Rangers, A's to resume set between co-AL West leaders
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derek Holland makes his season debut when the Texas Rangers
and Oakland Athletics continue their three-game series this evening at Rangers
Ballpark in Arlington.
One of the top pitching prospects in the Rangers' system, Ho
<< White Sox aim for sweep of short set with first-place Twins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox go for a sweep in the finale of their
brief two-game series with the Minnesota Twins this afternoon at Target Field.
No team was happier to see the Metrodome close than the White Sox, who had
dropped
<< Astros continue series with rival Cards at Busch
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While Houston's Wandy Rodriguez will try to bounce back
from his shortest outing of the season tonight, St. Louis' Kyle Lohse will
again be aiming for his first victory of 2010 as the Astros and Cardinals
continu
Red Sox close homestand with finale against Jays >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox will attempt to close out a long
homestand with a result that's been a familiar one so far this season, a win
over the Toronto Blue Jays.
With Tim Wakefield set to make his first start in more than two
Pens host surprising Habs in Game 7 of East semis >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The eighth-seeded Montreal Canadiens have pushed the
defending Stanley Cup champions to the brink in the Eastern Conference
semifinals and it all comes down to tonight, when the Habs visit the
Pittsburgh Penguins for a decisi
Flyers try to stay alive in Game 6 vs. Bruins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will try to stay alive in the
Eastern Conference semifinals once again when they host the Boston Bruins
tonight at Wachovia Center in Game 6 of the best-of-seven series.
The seventh-seeded Flyers lo
Injury scratches Hurricane Ike from Preakness >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hurricane Ike, winner of last month's Derby
Trial, has been withdrawn from the Preakness Stakes with a leg injury. Trainer
John Sadler made the announcement Wednesday morning.
"My horse isn't so fine. It'
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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