Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
Avenel was developed over 220 acres in Potomac, Maryland's rolling countryside, just minutes away from famed Congressional Country Club. The course is a perfect stadium golf facility, designed for hosting a PGA Tour event.
Gil Morgan shot four sub-par rounds in 1990 to edge a hard-charging Ian Baker- Finch by one shot. Morgan, who started the final round three shots back, shot 69 for the win, while Baker-Finch, who trailed by seven, closed with 66. Billy Andrade became a first-time winner in 1991, as he birdied the first playoff hole to defeat Jeff Sluman. Andrade shot four rounds in the 60s to tie Sluman at a tournament-record total of 263, a mark that still stands today.
Bill Glasson captured his second Kemper Open and first at Avenel in 1992, as he edged four players, including John Daly, by one shot. Grant Waite foiled Tom Kite's bid for a second title with his first and only PGA Tour title in 1993. Kite, leading by one heading into the final round, shot 72 to Waite's 70 to finish one behind.
The 1998 title went to Stuart Appleby, who became the second International player to win at Avenel. Despite a one-over 72, Appleby defeated Scott Hoch by one shot. Appleby secured the win with a three-iron to within 15 feet on the final hole and two-putted for par. Rich Beem led, or was tied for the lead, from start to finish in 1999, as he won for the first time on the PGA Tour. Beem's total of 274 was one clear of Bill Glasson and Bradley Hughes.
Tied for the lead after three rounds with Bob Burns, Bob Estes carded a Sunday 71 to edge 1999 champion Rich Beem by one shot for his fourth career title in 2002. Burns, who aced the 11th hole during the final round, finished tied for third after a one-over 72. Estes carded 17 pars and one birdie, but trailed by one with three holes remaining. Burns, who held the lead, would relinquish the advantage with a costly double-bogey on 16 while Estes parred the final two holes for victory. Beem carded four rounds in the 60s, including back-to-back 69s over the weekend.
Rory Sabbatini returned to the winner's circle for the first time in three years, as he closed with back-to-back 68s for a four-shot win. With his victory, Sabbatini became the fourth player in the last five years to either hold or share the 54-hole lead and go on to victory. The 2003 event changed names to the FBR Capital Open.
The 2006 event returned to Avenel and Ben Curtis, three years removed from his British Open title, endured six days of inclement weather to capture his second career title. Curtis' total of 264 was one shy of the tournament record and he won by five shots over four players. Rain and lightning plagued the event from start to finish, as this event was the first Tuesday climax since the 1980 Tucson Open. Curtis, who hit 83.3 percent of the fairways for the week and led from start to finish, had a chance to break the tournament mark, but a bogey-bogey finish ended his chances.
No. 2 is the longest hole on the course, a whopping 622 yards from the gold tees. This par five bends to the right and plays downhill towards the green. A massive strike off the tee down the right side can cut the corner of the dogleg, but be wary of the thick rough, sand and tall trees that guard the bend. The proper second shot is to lay back around 100 yards for your third to leave a simple pitch to a very long, boomerang-shaped green. A back-left flag could be quite difficult, since a deep bunker looms large.
Arnold Palmer put the third hole and the course on the map with his back-to- back aces in 1986. This monster of a par-three now plays to the tune of 239 yards. The putting surface is long and wide and features a shaved chipping area around the green. Slightly downhill, the real danger is short-right, as a creek and trees come into play. Shoot for bogey and maybe, just maybe, you might sink a short putt for par.
<<
Home Range Boosts Par In Course
<<
Eye ON Gambling Into Drive Juniors
<<
Tour Superstores Leaves Tournament Against Dallas
Marketing Budget Beats Adesso Albums At Celebrity >>
Businesses Virgil Highlight Name Down Development >>
Golf Classic Adds Manhattan Golf Classic With Listing >>
MySportsbook.com is a must-have for the smart veteran sports investor who enjoys following the odds almost as much as betting them. Simply put, no one offers more betting options and offers them faster than MySportsbook. This football sportsbook is known for its ability to set the early market odds on events without having to worry about weak lines. Professional players are well aware that getting a crack at the early betting line is worth as much as, and sometimes more than, huge bonuses or reduced prices. MySportsbook's fearless, yet smart bookmaking style is what keeps everyone watching, including most other sportsbooks.
This is also a great choice for those who just want to have a worry free, fun experience. The ownership’s motto is “Sweat the game, not the payout”. These are not just decorative words used to fill space on the homepage. MySportsbook aims to give their customers the fastest withdrawals in the industry. Payouts are processed within 24 hours by an online sportsbook that carries our A+ financial rating.
Those who enjoy proposition and future wagers consider MySportsbook.com a top choice. Smaller players who seek large bonuses would do better at their sister book, Sportsbooks.com.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your betting football needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting